SCENARIO ANALYSIS Huang Industries is considering a proposed project whose estimated NPV is $12 million. This estimate assumes that economic conditions will be “average.” However, the CFO realizes that conditions could be better or worse, so she performed a scenario analysis and obtained these results:
|
Economic Scenario |
Probability of Outcome |
NPV |
|
Recession |
0.05 |
($70 million) |
|
Below average |
0.20 |
(25 million) |
|
Average |
0.50 |
12 million |
|
Above average |
0.20 |
20 million |
|
Boom |
0.05 |
30 million |
Calculate the project’s expected NPV, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation.