The American chess master Jonathan Meller is playing the Soviet expert Yuri Gasparov in a two game exhibition match. Each win earns a player one point, and each draw earns a half point. The player who has the most points after two games wins the match. If the players are tied after two games, they play until one wins a game; then the first player to win a game wins the match. During each game, Meller has two possible approaches: to play a daring strategy or to play a conservative strategy. His probabilities of winning, losing, and drawing when he follows each strategy are shown in Table.
Strategy |
Win |
Loss |
Draw |
Daring |
.45 |
.55 |
0 |
Conservative |
0 |
.10 |
.90 |
To maximize his probability of winning the match, what should the American do?