(The Allais Paradox) Suppose we are offered a choice between the following two lotteries:
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L1: |
With probability 1, we receive $1 million. |
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L2: |
With probability .10, we receive $5 million. |
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With probability .89, we receive $1 million. |
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With probability .01, we receive $0. |
Which lottery do we prefer? Now consider the following two lotteries:
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L3: |
With probability .11, we receive $1 million. |
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With probability .89, we receive $0. |
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L4: |
With probability .10, we receive $5 million. |
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With probability .90, we receive $0. |
Explain how prospect theory and/or framing explainsthe Allais Paradox.