(The Allais Paradox) Suppose we are offered a choice between the following two lotteries:
L1: |
With probability 1, we receive $1 million. |
L2: |
With probability .10, we receive $5 million. |
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With probability .89, we receive $1 million. |
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With probability .01, we receive $0. |
Which lottery do we prefer? Now consider the following two lotteries:
L3: |
With probability .11, we receive $1 million. |
|
With probability .89, we receive $0. |
L4: |
With probability .10, we receive $5 million. |
|
With probability .90, we receive $0. |
Which lottery do we prefer? Suppose (like most people), we prefer L1 to L2. Show that L3 must have a larger expected utility than L4.